Having won a hard-fought point against favourites Canada, Nigeria will be looking to take all three from their second-ever match against a Matildas team riding high from their first-round win against Ireland.
Despite fielding a largely inexperienced squad, the Super Falcons will again prove a difficult test for Tony Gustavsson’s team, as their defensive bravery and counter-attacking style contrasts against the Matildas’ often possession-based game plan.
Last Time Out
Australia 2 Nigeria 0 – Winnipeg, 2015
Two goals from Kyah Simon in a player-of-the-match performance saw the Matildas ease past Nigeria in the 2015 Women’s World Cup group stage in the Manitoba capital. Australia would have had a third through Laura Brock if not for the crossbar, though the match remains infamous for Cecilia Njoku’s vicious off-the-ball elbow to the jaw of Sam Kerr going unpunished by the officials.
Likely Starting XIs
Unavailable: Australia – Mary Fowler (concussion), Aivi Luik (concussion), Sam Kerr (calf); Nigeria – Deborah Abiodun (suspended).
Nigerian duo Rasheedat Ajibade and Halimatu Ayinde return from suspension following their red cards in the 2022 African Women’s Cup of Nations semi-finals, and will likely replace winger Francisca Ordega and suspended midfielder Deborah Abiodun respectively.
For the Matildas, captain Sam Kerr remains unavailable due to a calf injury, while Aivi Luik and Mary Fowler have been ruled out after suffering concussions during training, meaning Australia may revert to a 4-3-3 with Caitlin Foord at the point of attack and Alex Chidiac being deployed in midfield.
Three Key Battles
Australia’s centre-backs vs Asisat Oshoala
Even for those unfamiliar with the intricacies of African football, it’s not too far of a stretch to say Asisat Oshoala is the continent’s best footballer of the past decade. Named BBC Women’s Player of the Year in 2015 and African Women’s Player of the Year six times in the past nine years, Oshoala’s trophy cabinet includes two European Cups as well as the 2022 Pichichi award for the leading scorer in the Spanish Primera División.
Having scored 27 goals in 42 games for club and country this season, Oshoala will be keenly watched by Australia’s defensive pairing – likely Clare Hunt and Alanna Kennedy – as the Barcelona striker will look to be significantly more involved in the match after just 24 touches against Canada, of which only three were inside the opponent’s penalty area, and two off-target shots.
Kennedy and Hunt seem well-prepared for the contest however, notching a dozen possession recoveries against Ireland to keep Irish centre-forward Kyra Carusa to just 14 pass receptions across 86 minutes, and while those numbers may seem impressive in a vacuum, it is the time spent together marshalling Carusa – as well as midfielders Denise O’Sullivan and Ruesha Littlejohn – that will stand the Matildas’ centre-halves in good stead against such a quality opponent.
The Battle of the Wings
Of all Ireland’s impressive defensive achievements in their opening match, one standing above all others was their stimeying of the Matildas’ world-class wingbacks Ellie Carpenter and Steph Catley. Regularly deployed as advanced crossing options or underlapping-midfielders, Catley and Carpenter were able to contribute only eight crosses between them over the 90 minutes, totalling a measly 65 progressive metres from their 58 carries.
Key to those miserly numbers was Ireland’s formation, deploying a five-wide defensive line, with Katie McCabe and Heather Payne advancing when in possession to shut down any movement from Catley and Carpenter high up the pitch. Of course, this advancement by the Irish defenders allowed Hayley Raso and Cortnee Vine opportunities to spring counter-attacks in behind the far-flung wing-backs, however Ireland’s three central defenders were able to slide across and mark each attach 1-vs-1 as the attack developed.
For Nigeria however, Houston Dash wingback Michelle Alozie and her Leicester City-based counterpart Ashleigh Plumptre will likely be without the luxury of a third central defender providing cover, forcing them – and manager Randy Waldrum – to make conscious decisions as to whether attacking and allowing wide spaces in the attacking third to be unmarked each time Nigeria attack or turnover possession in midfield. These positional adjustments and their will be ke
Australia vs Sam Kerr Calf Watch
There has been few cases of the nation’s attention being captured by a single athlete’s injury in Australian history as has Sam Kerr’s calf complaint: cricketer Glenn McGrath’s ankle in the 2005 Ashes, Socceroos winger Harry Kewell’s foot in the 2006 men’s World Cup, and basketball legend Lauren Jackson’s knee ahead of the 2016 Olympics are among the handful of ailments in which the country has invested so much emotion, though even those feel secondary to this.
Struck down at a home World Cup, the powerlessness with which Australian audiences watch Kerr’s recovery could be listed in the DSM-5 as a cause of collective trauma, as fans around the country hang on the word of every media talking head and presented player when discussing the Chelsea striker’s left peg – as was evidenced by the reaction to Kyra Cooney Cross’ comments this week.
With Mary Fowler now ruled out for the match, Tony Gustavsson and the Matildas will be forced into a number of changes – including a potential change of formation – potentially meaning more defensive attention for striker Caitlin Foord. However, these changes also bring with them the opportunity to diversify the team’s attacking plan, bringing more technical players such as Emily van Egmond and Alex Chidiac into play, forcing Nigeria to make further adjustments to a defensive shape based on Australia’s efforts against Ireland.
Yet, even if those changes in the Australian line-up bring about a victory and Matildas’ fans discourse on the matter subsides in the following week, the intense scrutiny placed on the injury by sections of the traditional media will be unlikely to relent, heaping further pressure on a team of which so much is already expected.
Prediction
Nigeria’s defensive tenacity against Canada was impressive, but the Super Falcons’ attacking options were blunted by a well-organised Canadian back four. Despite Sam Kerr’s continued absence from the Matildas’ line-up, the hosts will look to make the most of Nigerian midfielder Deborah Abiodun’s suspension and take another step towards the Round of 16 at Lang Park. Australia 2 Nigeria 0
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