Put simply, this final group game is do-or-die. Currently leading the group, Canada will be looking to avoid defeat and guarantee a place in the knockout rounds for the third consecutive World Cup; for Australia, only a win will ensure progress in its home tournament, while a draw would leave the Matildas waiting on results from the other match in Group B.
Having lost to Nigeria 2-3 in Brisbane / Meanjin, the Matildas have been the topic of much consternation throughout media and punditry over the past week, especially around the nature of the defeat and perceived inability to react to changing match situations. Facing a Canadian team with just two wins in 2023, Tony Gustavsson’s side will need to pick the lock of a miserly side needing only a point to move on to the Round of 16.
Last Time Out
Australia 1 Canada 2 – Sydney, 2022
The first football match held at the new Sydney Football Stadium saw Mary Fowler open the scoring for the home side after just three minutes, giving the Matildas a 1-0 lead at half-time. That lead lasted barely two minutes into the second half as Adriana Leon equalised, before scoring what would be the winner shortly after the hour mark.
Likely Starting XIs
Australia will likely welcome Mary Fowler back into the line-up after her concussion to partner Caitlin Foord at the top of a 4-2-2-2, while captain Sam Kerr and Aivi Luik could once again be available from the bench.
For Canada, all-time leading scorer Christine Sinclair is expected to return to the starting XI having started on the bench against Ireland, while Jessie Fleming is again fit to play after missing her side’s opener against Nigeria. Manager Bev Priestman will be wary of her defence’s current yellow card situation, as three of her first-choice back four are one booking away from suspension should they make the Round of 16.
Three Key Battles
Ellie Carpenter vs Jordyn Huitema
It’s no secret that Ellie Carpenter has been close to most things successful when it comes to Australian football in the past few years. The first Australian to win a European Cup since Željko Kalac in 2007, and the first Australian woman to win the title, Carpenter’s success with club side Olympique Lyon has been tempered by a year-long injury layoff due to a ruptured knee ligament, causing her to miss the 2022 Women’s Asian Cup and majority of the 2022-23 Division 1 Féminine season.
Returning to the pitch in the last month of OL’s domestic campaign, Carpenter will likely face her most demanding test of the Women’s World Cup so far: Canadian winger Jordan Huitema. The only member of the Canadian squad not to play in the American college system, Huitema graduated directly from youth academy to top-flight football, signing with French club Paris Saint-Germain after impressing at the 2017 Algarve Cup aged just 18. During her four years in the French capital she was among PSG’s first-ever D1F-winning team, claiming a Coupe de France title along the way.
Having faced each other four times playing for their respective clubs, Huitema and Carpenter are familiar foes, though the two flyers haven’t gone toe-to-toe since November 2021. Both formidable attacking outlets, Carpenter’s want to press forward to assist winger Hayley Raso will be offset by the need to be constantly on guard against an opponent able just as capable in open space or with the ball at her feet. That delicate balancing act – as well as the ability of each player’s respective teammates to provide defensive assistance should it be needed – will be key to the result in a match of such fine margins.
Katrina Gorry vs Quinn
Brilliantly profiled by Emma Kemp for Nine Newspapers, midfielder Quinn’s stock has risen drastically over the past four years, from a bit-part depth player in the late 2010s to among the first names on the team sheet since the Toyko 2020 Olympics. A tempo-setting playmaker, Quinn is a crucial part of the Canadian midfielders on both sides of the ball, racking up a total of 112 completed passes of 135 attempted in their two group matches to date – eight of which led to attempts on goal – while also laying eight tackles and making eight blocks.
Three years Quinn’s senior but with just two more caps for her national team, Katrina Gorry has returned just as deeply embedded in the Matildas set-up as when she stepped away from football in early 2021 ahead of the birth of daughter Harper in August. Revitalised and reinvigorated after 12 months away from the game, Gorry has missed just 29 minutes of international football across 15 matches since April 2022, underlining her importance as both a playmaker and leader on the pitch.
Similarly equipped in terms of passing and defensive ability but markedly different in physical attributes, Quinn and Gorry’s battle will largely dictate which team can gain the upper hand in the crucial middle third. With their respective teams’ chances of controlling the midfield narrative resting on their shoulders, expect both players to head into this clash laser focused on wresting that control for their side.
Australia vs Their Shooting Boots
Though it’s important to congratulate Nigeria for the sterling defensive efforts that proved their path to victory, it’s just as valuable to examine Australia’s newfound allergy to kicking the ball towards that pesky white rectangle standing at the end of the pitch. In the Matildas’ two group matches to this point, the team has managed just eight shots on target across 180+ minutes from a total of 40 attempts.
Even against Nigeria – a match in which the hosts completed almost 400 passes, over 10 percent of which were into the attacking third – Australia missed the forethought and instinct of a player willing to shoot on sight and on target. Of course, Nigerian goalkeeper Chiamaka Nnadozie was excellent both in directing defensive shape and claiming possession where needed, but having made only six saves over the course of the match would not seem enough to claim the mantle as her side’s matchwinner.
Having lacked a proper pointwoman for the entire tournament to this point, the Matildas will be keen to involve Sam Kerr as quickly as possible in this crucial match, though neither Kerr herself nor manager Gustavsson was forthcoming with further details of her availability beyond her inclusion on the team sheet. Once on the pitch though, Australian fans will be hoping Kerr’s presence alone will create separation between the lines and force Canada to alter their defensive shape, allowing for more shooting opportunities – and hopefully goals.
Prediction
Having been given a massive wake-up call in losing to Nigeria and with Swan Street expected to be an absolute bearpit, the Matildas will be hoping to pull off the great escape their home tournament deserves. With captain Sam Kerr potentially available for a cameo appearance, expect the Matildas to press forward from the opening minute looking consign Olympic champions Canada to the dustbin of this World Cup. Canada 1 Australia 2
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